Don’t worry, we’ve VIXed it

US Treasury Secretary Bessent was recently interviewed by Bloomberg, where he said “I don't want to make market calls, but I think the VIX spiked and has likely peaked.”

As someone who worked alongside legendary macro traders, Soros and Druckenmiller, is he calling the bottom? 

Bitcoin’s volatility spikes aren't a reliable signal for market bottoms — they’ve historically marked just as many tops.

Still, they do tend to align with major peaks and troughs. So… which direction are we heading this time?

The VIX (in blue), on the other hand, tends to spike on market bottoms.

Check the uncanny historical relationship with lows for the S&P500 (in white).

For once, we might be grateful for the still strong correlation between stocks and crypto!

Volatility = Options

The Deribit monthly options forecast has flipped positive for the first time in months, with the current probability curve pointing toward a 91k peak.

While options pricing models can swing wildly intraday, this is still a constructive signal.

Are we getting any confluence in other areas?

In trading, it’s often not enough to rely on just one signal. Is anything else starting to flash green?

6/ @caprioleio’s Bitcoin Macro Index model has flipped bullish for the first time this year.

As of April 12th, it’s signaling a return to expansion. With over 60 metrics baked in, this model is worth keeping an eye on.

Liquidations often mark the bottom. 

While it may not look as large as recent liquidations, we have to remember that open interest (the number of contracts open) has also dropped.

In percentage terms, this recent flush was of a comparable magnitude to the months prior.

Markets cause max pain on short term holders. 

When the last seller has capitulated, this marks the bottom. There are no more sellers left to push down the price - only buyers to push it up.

As always, the big question is: have we reached that point?